MSING014 ─ MSING014B ─ MSINM014
DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS ─ 2011/2012
The examination will last for TWO (2) hours.
The exam is definitely open book. You are allowed to use the program pack, course handouts and any other materials that connect with the study course.
You are not in order to access the web, or email-based.
The assessment paper includes 10 inquiries:
You should answer ALL of the concerns.
Make specific any assumptions underlying the answers, interpret your
recommendations. Although keep your answers short and also to the point. In grading, importance will be attached to the quality and conciseness of your answers. Good luck!
DECISION & RISK ANALYSIS: TEST
FastFerment is a start-up venture started by UCL scientists and engineers. The firm found an chemical which boosts the development of the form Aspergillus Orgzae, which is used in making traditional rice-based alcoholic beverages (rice wines) in East Asia including Sake or perhaps Makgeolli. T hen this kind of powder is roofed in the production of the rice wine beverages, the production lead time is usually shortened coming from 10 days to 3 days devoid of affecting the taste or top quality of the wine beverage, as it boosts the fermentation of the grain. Thus, the powder can substantially boost the production convenience of the rice-wine manufacturers and give them with a competitive advantage. Recently, FastFerment has enhanced the technology of genetically engineering and mass making this accelerating enzyme and storing it in a natural powder form. They can be currently making strategies to commercialize the powder by selling the powder to manufacturers. At the moment, they calculate there are one hundred and fifty six rice wines manufacturers, yet this could be as less as 140, while existing firms may no longer be active, and as many while 190, and there is recent new entrants for the market as the grain wines are getting to be popular in recent times. Because the natural powder is new, they anticipate only a few early on adopters can be interested in the product. The sumado a expect among 5~10% of the firms to be their potential buyers, with no specific percentage becoming greater than the other. The price they would demand for 1 kg of the powder depends on the cost of manufacturing the powder plus the value it delivers with each manufacturer. After conducting primary market research, that they expect an average manufacturer being willing to pay of up to £950/kg, but as low because £400/kg depending on the initial talks. They anticipate the value to be £550/kg. Moreover, it is uncertain simply how much quantity every single manufacturer would want to buy, that will depend on all their current development capacity, but they are estimating between 100kg to 400kg every firm. The founders agree that they will need to hire professional sales people together with the necessary knowledge of the science in the powder to help these groups sell to each manufacturer. They do not know how many will join, but they have made an offer to six, and anticipate between 5 and six to join FastFerment, with every number being equally likely. The twelve-monthly wage will be given in terms of earnings (no commission), and it is supposed to be £50, 000, nonetheless it is flexible between £45, 000 and £75, 1000 depending on their particular qualifications and experience. FastFerment is also evaluating the cost linked to production. When they have mastered the technology to make the natural powder, they at the moment do not have the manufacturing plant build to accommodate the actual demand. Preliminary estimates present that the fixed cost associated with setting up a manufacturer is at least £300, 1000 and at many £600, 1000, with £500, 000 being the most most likely. The varying cost pertaining to producing 1kg of the dust is likely to be £200/kg, but also this is variable simply by 10% in either way.
Rice wine companies